A Hard Witching And Other Stories by Jacqueline Baker

By Jacqueline Baker

Jacqueline Baker's ostensible topics in a troublesome Witching, her first brief tale assortment, are the crushed and colourless human kinds that inhabit rural Saskatchewan, however the precise significant characters in those tales are the Sand Hills, the awesome dunes within the province's southwest nook. The dunes are domestic to distinct natural world in addition to many dinosaur fossils. not just are they invisible other than at shut quarters, they circulate imperceptibly every one year.

All 8 of the tales during this assortment care for the ambivalent dating of settler society to its surroundings. occasionally there's a touch of nostalgia for an easier rural existence, however it quick dissipates. And regularly the Sand Hills are there, pointing to a wasteland that's not just actual, it's emotional, and both unbearably scorching or impossibly chilly. the grim atmosphere of loveless marriages and failed adolescent sexuality subtly hyperlink to a situation within which the characters are unwelcome or, at top, beside the point. Nowhere is that this proven extra essentially than within the first tale, "Cherry"; it describes, from a child's standpoint, eccentric Uncle Aloetius, who torments his niece and nephew with journeys to "the hoodoo-like hills" trying to find "vossles." yet their uncle's sinister attract, compounded via stories of his attractive runaway spouse, Cherry, evaporates on his loss of life. an unsightly previous lady donning an excessive amount of make-up turns up, calling herself Auntie Geraldine. "'Cherry,' she stated, 'is how they used to assert Gerri.... All these Germans.'" Even her identify is a mirage. those tales, ruled through usually younger narrators and lies informed approximately intercourse and relations, recommend Baker as a rural J.D. Salinger--a so much promising begin to a literary profession. --Robyn Gillam

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A separate, constant probability, φ2 , of annual survival applies to animals in their second year of life. Animals aged 2 to 7 share the same annual survival probability φ3:8 , which is logistically regressed on the binary covariate R, denoting the breeding status of the hind. Animals aged at least 8 years have an annual survival probability φ9+ which is a logistic function of the age of the animal, NAO index, and reproductive status. In addition, the model allows for an annual dispersal probability ν, which is a logistic function of the population density and a measure Y of the location of the animal.

Thus we can only estimate the original parameters φ1 and p2 . The full set of estimable quantities can be found by solving a system of differential equations (see Catchpole et al. 1998 and Gimenez et al. fr/biom/PRM), although in this particular case it is easy in this example to see by inspection that the other two estimable quantities are β1 = φ2 p3 and β2 = φ2 (1 − p3 )φ3 p4 . The work of this section deals exclusively with classical maximum-likelihood estimation; however, it is will be important also for Bayesian analysis, as we shall see in later chapters.

2 Different Animals and Different Data: State-Space Models Many countries undertake regular national censuses of wild animals, without considering how the resulting information might be analysed to estimate survival. Additionally, much national effort is devoted to investigating productivity. 012) Source: Reproduced with permission from Catchpole et al. (1998, p. 41) published by the International Biometric Society. Note: The table provides maximum-likelihood estimates, with estimated asymptotic standard errors in parentheses, of annual survival probabilities φimm , for the 2nd and 3rd years of life, and φa , from the 4th year onwards.

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